League One
Leg 1: Rotherham United v Bolton Wanderers, Saturday 12:30: Back BTTS ‘No’ @ 11/10
We’re going against the market here with the BTTS ‘Yes’ odds-on at 8/11 and it’s a market I’d rather explore than the outright win or draw odds as Rotherham have failed to convince at home and Bolton likewise on the road.
Rotherham’s form is patchy to say the least with just one victory in their last five – but crucially for our weekend bet those five matches have all been Under 2.5 Goals with just two goals as an output from Steve Evans’ side in that run and back-to-back clean sheets on the road.
Bolton is more the source of potential goals at the moment, but they are not a team to trust wholly and for all of their possession – which they often dominate, sometimes doesn’t always translate to shots on target, although the Trotters are unbeaten across their last four away league games against sides from Yorkshire (W2 D2), last enjoying a longer run between March 2013 and April 2014 (six games).
Leg 2: Northampton Town v Barnsley, Saturday 15:00: Back Barnsley Match Odds 90 mins @ 4/7
Barnsley have won five of their last seven away league games (D1 L1), though they have conceded exactly one goal in six of those matches during that time and they historically do well in this fixture too as the Cobblers have failed to win any of their last three league games against Barnsley and will be looking to avoid failing to win four in successionvfor the first time in the EFL.
With that recent Barnsley away form, they fully deserve to be odds-on by some chalk for Saturday and their away record has been much better than their home one with eight wins away from Oakwell (compared to four).
Since the 4-0 thrashing by Leyton Orient, Darrel Clarke’s side have produced the perfect riposte with four wins on the spin and they’ve scored 10 goals in that run. Indeed, they can boast of having the leading xG in League One at 1.47 and that hopefully will be enough to justify their short price.
KEY OPTA STAT: After failing to win any of their first eight away league games against Northampton Town between 1961 and 1977 (D2 L6), Barnsley have since won two of their last three such matches (L1).
Leg 3: Stevenage Borough v Burton Albion, Saturday 15:00: Back BTTS ‘No’ @ 8/11
Stevenage are all of a sudden the masters of the 0-0 with three of their last five games finishing that way – and one of those was at Northampton. Last weekend’s goalless draw at Lincoln saw both sides under the 1.00 for xG output with Lincoln at 0.50 and Borough at 0.90. Those numbers mirror almost exactly the stalemate at the Cobblers with Stevo at a lower 0.48xG.
It wasn’t a huge shock to see the Under 2.5 Goals on the Sportsbook at 13/20 but backing the BTTS ‘No’ gives us a better option at 8/11 as Burton are not exactly a wrecking-ball of a scoring team and have won just one of their last 12 away league games (D5 L6), failing to score more than one goal in any of their last eight such matches.
The Brewers are still fighting for survival as the bottom placed club and they’ve only netted 20 times in 24 games this term with just nine on the road all season. I wouldn’t be surprised with a 0-0 here if you are looking for a Correct Score bet, and it’s hard to get excited about either in front of goal with Albion down at the bottom with the lowest xG in the division at just 1.03.
KEY OPTA STAT: Stevenage have won three of their last four home league games (L1), whilst they’ve kept seven clean sheets in total across their home outings in League One this season
