Some players are lucky to have a great season right before they become free agents. Others provided numbers that corresponded to their career marks. Juan Soto is doing both.
The right fielder was dealt to the New York Yankees this summer and has been an excellent fit in the Bronx. He’s batting.315/.413/.581, leading the American League with 64 hits and 118 total bases. His 178 OPS+ implies that he is batting 78% better than league average, ranking third in the league behind Kyle Tucker (197) and teammate Aaron Judge (187).
These staggering figures are not far beyond his career averages. He has slashed during the last seven seasons.286/.421/.528 for 158 OPS+. He has not missed a game since 2022 and has appeared at least 150 times in each season since his sophomore year (except 2020). He charmed himself to New York fans not only with his terrific hitting but also with his likeable attitude, and he won’t be 26 until October.
His age, production, durability, and lovability are the ingredients for a free-agency perfect storm. His agent, Scott Boras, usually prefers his clients to test the market rather than to negotiate extensions, but neither the player nor the team have ruled out in-season discussions.
His next contract will almost certainly set records, regardless of whether it’s an extension or a free-agent deal. The largest contract in MLB history is Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but after accounting for $680 million in deferrals, it has a value of just under $461 million. The highest dollar amount in a deal for a position player is Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426.5 million extension with the Los Angeles Angels, and the longest contract ever is Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year, $340 million deal with the San Diego Padres.
Soto could break all of those records. A 15-year contract that would take him till age 41 is implausible, but not impossible. He will almost certainly outperform Trout’s total value and potentially Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted value as he strives for $500 million. According to Yankees managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner, “Payrolls at the levels we’re at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially.” The team’s overall payroll is $302 million, but it faces a competitive balance tax assessment of $313 million. As a third-time taxpayer, their competitive balance tax levy is $59 million.
MLB’s competitive balance tax threshold will be $241 million in 2025. If the Yankees want to get under that limbo bar, they can’t re-sign Soto. Their payroll commitments for 2025 are already $185 million, and that doesn’t count arbitration salaries for key contributors like Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt, and Jose Trevino. Judge earns $40 million per year, and Soto’s next deal should surpass his average annual value.
Can the Yankees afford to lose him though? In 2023, the offense lagged as the club finished 82-80, their worst record since 1992. They suffered from a lack of outfield production—aside from Judge—and not enough impact left-handed hitting. Soto revitalized the lineup, filling both of those needs perfectly as the team currently boasts a 36-17 record—the best mark in the American League.
Soto is an excellent talent for the Yankees, who rarely let players of his calibre slip away. However, he would be equally effective in any other MLB lineup. Not all 30 clubs will be able to meet his asking price, but if the Yankees want to keep him, they must overcome their reluctance to maintain a high payroll and then either give an unprecedented extension or outbid the competition if he goes free.
