Ben wrote this.
The Cognizant Classic at PGA National’s Champion course in The Palm Beaches didn’t have its typical bite, but Friday’s predicted winds might have satisfied those who were expecting for mayhem.
With the old challenging par-4 10th turned into a manageable par 5, softer greens, reduced rough, and no wind, the opening round score average of -1.457 was a tournament record low.
Round 3 of 2023 has the lowest round scoring average from 2007 to 23 (-0.71). Even though there are no direct parallels with the new layout, it nevertheless provides an overview. (Due to darkness, play on one three-ball was also not yet complete.)
However, Friday’s forecast promises winds between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph during the midday hours, adding some threat to this track.
This can be bad news for morning wave players who finish on the tricky “The Bear Trap” back nine, or possibly for afternoon wave players who start from the back side.
In the first round, the back nine (-1.097) played much easier than the front nine (-0.357), but the wind might reverse that advantage. Players arriving later in the afternoon, when the wind may have dropped, may have an advantage.
Favorite player Rory McIlroy (+700) is off to a fantastic start this afternoon, which could provide him a solid position in the rotation.
Despite struggling with his approach on Thursday, McIlroy managed to shoot a 4-under 67, three strokes behind the lead.
Cameron Young, Andrew Novak, Ryan Moore, Austin Eckroat, Chesson Hadley
, and David Skinns share third place at 6-under, with Chad Ramey and S.H. Kim tied for the lead at 7 under.
After the first day, these are the most recent odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.
- +700: Rory McIlroy (-4, T16)
- +800: Cameron Young (-6, T3)
- +1800: S.H. Kim (-7, T1)
- +2200: Byeong Hun An (-4, T16)
- +2500: Erik van Rooyen (-5, T9)
- +2500: Chesson Hadley (-6, T3)
- +2500: Andrew Novak (-6, T3)
- +2500: Min Woo Lee (-4, T16)
- +2800: Shane Lowry (-4, T16
Draws
Chris Kirk (+3300, -4)
The defending champion was on fire early, jumping out to 5-under through seven holes before a loose swing in “The Bear Trap” led to a double bogey on 17. But he rebounded from the mishap with a bounce-back birdie to ultimately shoot 4-under. Despite not having his best for a portion of the round, Kirk still ranked 24th in SG: Tee-to-Green and at 10th on the season in the same metric he’s a player I feel can be banked on to strike the ball well for three more days. Eight of the last nine winners here have ranked inside the top five of SG: Tee-to-Green on their way to victory with four of them leading the field in the metric. A year ago, Kirk shot a 62 in the second round.
Novak Andrew (+2500, -6)
My pre-tournament longshot at +12500 was Novak, so I have to keep the love going here. With two top-10 finishes in his previous two appearances, he is beginning to feel at ease in the running. Most notably, as of Thursday, he is in fourth place in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green, which is in line with his sixth-place season ranking.
Matthieu Pavon (+320 for DraftKings’ Top 10)
Following yet another strong and bogey-free round of golf, the FedExCup leader is currently tied for 16th place after the first round. Despite dropping from his season rank of third to 39th in SG: Tee-to-Green, he still managed to score well. I consider this Thursday’s round as a little bit of a rust buster, having not played in a few weeks. He can now ascend the boards, increasing his worth to a top-10 or possibly higher.
Fade
Rory McIlroy (+700)
This one could easily bite me on the backside given the possibility McIlroy gets the rails run with the draw but I didn’t like these similar odds at the start of the tournament and I don’t like them any better now he is three back. McIlroy was a fascination to watch on Thursday because his driving of the golf ball was pretty stellar (ranked first) but his approach game was very scratchy indeed (ranked 114th). Given his approach game has been a problem in his previous TOUR starts this season I’m loathed to advocate placing hard earned on him when dangers lurk around multiple greens at PGA National. But if he can turn it around on Friday I could be turned into an instant believer.
